Gallup has been polling Americans monthly on what they believe is the most important problem facing the country since the 1930s. Here are the top ten issues in their most recent poll:
- 29% Dissatisfaction with government/Poor leadership
- 12% Immigration/illegal aliens
- 10% Economy/Unemployment/Wages/Other econ.
- 9% Race relations/Racism
- 7% Unifying the country
- 5% Healthcare
- 4% Lack of respect for each other
- 4% Poverty/Hunger/Homelessness
- 2% Ethics/moral/religious/family decline
- 2% Judicial system/Courts/Laws
These responses zoom up and down–86% mentioned economic issues at the height of the last recession in 2009. People responding to the polls focus on the present, but what will the top issues be in 2036 when those born this year can first vote?
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” Yogi Berra once said. One way we can think about possible futures in 2036 is to look at 18 year trends and project them 18 years into the future. That should spark conversation about how the trend drivers could change, and if government intervention could help turn around a negative trend. With positive trends, the conversation might be more about how to keep governments out of it!
If the new voters of 2036 could travel back in time, what would they say we should have done to give them a fighting chance? What will their top ten issues be if we do nothing? Issues that only a small number of people mention to Gallup today may be at the top of their agenda: the federal budget deficit is only mentioned by 2%, the gap between rich and poor 1%, education 2%, guns/gun control 2%, care for the elderly/Medicare 1%, and so on. Global warming and Social Security do not even show up on Gallup’s current list.
I will be blogging on the top ten issues for 2036 over the next couple months and invite you to contribute ideas and information. Is it worth the effort? The advantage of an 18 year glide path is that a tiny change in a trend trajectory can power up a great difference. Take the federal government deficit: The Congressional Budget Office projects next year’s federal tax receipts at $3.3 trillion against expenditures of $4.1 trillion for an $800 billion deficit—we will hand the next generation a bill for the interest payments. However, just a 1% increase in revenues and a 1% decrease in expenditures per year would turn that the deficit into a $400 billion per year surplus in 2036. Rip up the bill! The surpluses will start paying down the national debt. Like the proverbial hole in the roof that can be easily fixed, but if left alone only gets worse, some trends deserve our attention, thinking and action right now.